With HP's news of a support extension, we can't help but recall the vendor's advice about your ecosystem, circa 2001. Back then, marketing manager Christine Martino was certain that the 3000 ecosystem wouldn't be a safe place to habitate in say, five or six years. Which would put HP's range of safety at late 2007, based on its estimates from four years ago.
As we all revise our calendars for an ecosystem with "at least" another full year of safety, we ponder the question of the size of your ecosystem. HP insists that the majority of customers are at least planning a migration, if not already underway. How many are still using their 3000s is a favorite question to kick around.
The last analyst census of your community was in 2003 by IDC. Two years ago, that company estimated between 12,000 and 16,000 HP 3000s were still running. Do whatever math you like; it still looks reasonable to us to say that "at least" 8,000 HP 3000s are running today, worldwide. IDC estimated that the installed base dropped from 23,000 systems in 2002.
VP Jean Bozman of IDC said in an interview after HP's news that the support extension might prompt a new IDG estimate of your installed base. "We're now going to feel like we should come up with a new estimate," she said, adding that she'll report the results to the NewsWire. Bozman added she was surprised to learn that HP will deploy the resources to extend your ecosystem an additional two years.
"I didn't know [the customers] had more time to have this kind of service and support with some level of commitment of revenue from HP," Bozman said. "It's a good sign that HP isn't going to walk away from these guys."